Challenging times for the US

By Manzur Ejaz

These are challenging times for the US whereby the endurance of its entire system is being tested. Coming months and years will show if it can withstand the new threats from Islamic fundamentalist forces the way it faced and prevailed over Communism. For Pakistan, near future can bring the best or the worst. Pakistan's viability heavily depends upon how soon the military government can overcomes the blunders it has been committing in the past. In addition, Pakistan's venturing in a new era also hinge upon the idiosyncrasies of its neighbor, India. Some believe that it is a forgone conclusion that India is intent on invading Pakistan not in the distant future.

The outsiders cannot imagine the way tragedy of September 11, 2001 and Anthrax scare has shook the core of the US system. Even majority of American have no comprehension how much vulnerability has been shown by the US system in the present crisis. Every institution of the US society is undergoing fundamental changes. Not only the economic sector is losing dynamism in the process of restructuring, the judicial and administrative branches are also been redesigned so ruthlessly that even the sacrosanct constitution is under threat. It indicates that the US will fight this war to the end. It has no choice if it has to survive as a system.

Many observers in the developing countries underestimate the depth of the US insecurity and resultant resolve to demolish the threat.' Debacle in Beirut or bombing of its embassies in Africa had hardly any bearing on the day-to-day life in the US. Even two World Wars and a prolonged fight in Viet Nam had not shaken the basic structure of the US. In all previous wars, including Viet Nam, the US was warding off possible future threats to its capitalist system. However, this is the first time that the US is fighting a threat that has already actualized. Therefore, to draw conclusions from the US behavior in the previous conflicts will be erroneous, misleading and underestimating the gravity of the situation. The US desperation is unprecedented and it might not pull out of Afghanistan like it did when casualties mounted in Beirut or some countries of Africa. This time, the US might be willing to take more casualties then it did in the Viet Nam war.

The US political elite and entire spectrum of intelligentsia has defined war against terrorism as a struggle of safeguarding the democratic system. One might find fault with such categorization by pointing out the US support for Arab monarchies and dictatorships in other countries. It is true that the present capitalist system maintains monarchies and dictatorships in certain countries for the security and economic benefit of its core industrialized countries. Nonetheless, the individuals in core-industrialized countries do enjoy immense liberties. Therefore, it will be fair to say that a democratic capitalist system is fighting against vestiges of tribalism and feudalism. Majority of Muslims would agree that the Talibans and their comrades in other places are trying to enforce traditional values of tribal/feudal societies instead of Islam. Therefore, if history is any guide the US, being the most advanced system, will prevail against the primitive tribal system.

Nonetheless, in the process, the US can undermine itself from within. Unfortunately, instead of finding other alternatives, the US is borrowing Israeli security systems and transforming itself into an Israel like police state. Up until now, the US capitalist system thrived because of freedom of movement of labor and goods. Its elasticity, capacity to absorb socio-economic shocks and making adjustment with emerging realities enabled it to prevail over extremely rigid Communist system. The US had also an edge over other industrialized countries in openness and flexibility. But, by becoming a police like state the US will lose this edge. Israel can sustain itself as a security obsessed society with the help of massive aid from the US but no win can underwrite Washington. In this respect the US is faced with the biggest challenge of this century. It has to be seen if the US capitalist system can weather this storm or finally falter. Who knows if the modern capitalist system has exhausted itself and the recent events were just catalyst for its ultimate downfall.

While the US is passing through its gravest test, Pakistan's viability is also at stake in this conflict. If Pakistan's ruling elite takes this crisis as an abreaction and change in its policy as one time alteration of its path and intends to go about its business hereafter, the country is doomed. However, if it changes its basic discourse, eliminate religious and other private militias, reinstate the state's writ in the society it has a better chance to survive. A basic political and institution reconfiguration will be an imperative. Otherwise, it will be faced grave threats from within and from its arch rival India.

Many observers here are convinced that India was fully bent upon a military intervention in Pakistan. It is argued that the US invasion of Afghanistan has provided justification to India for taking similar action against Pakistan, over the issue of Kashmir. It seems that a serious debate over the timing of a military action against Pakistan is already underway in Dehli. Probably Indian hawks are arguing for an immediate action now because of Pakistan's emerging vulnerability. They are arguing that Pakistan, with financial and military help from the US, may get stronger eventually or the US may look the other way regarding Pakistan's support for Kashmiri jihad.

However, saner heads, under pressure from Washington, may prevail for now and wait for the conclusion of the ongoing US action in Afghanistan. They may be pining great hopes on Washington's assurances that Pakistan's tolerance for private militias will be taken care of as soon as Taliban are dislodged from Afghanistan. Nonetheless, it is abundantly from American circles close to Dehli, that India is less likely to be restrained now. It is a very serious threat for Pakistan that can undo the progress Pakistan is expected to make as a result of its new links with the US and its allies.

The writer is the Washington Bureau Chief of Weekly Independent.

[republished with permission by the author from www.weeklyindependent.com]

Date/Time Last Modified: 6/17/2002 3:36:36 PM

© 2004, Human Development Foundation. All rights reserved.
1350 Remington Road, Suite W, Schaumburg, Il. 60173
Toll Free: (800) 705-1310 | Email: info@yespakistan.com | Privacy Policy