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Afghanistan:
what is happening?
by Najmuddin
A Shaikh
The writer is
a former foreign secretary
As I write on a Saturday
morning, 20 days after the commencement of the US military operations in Afghanistan,
the news emanating from Afghanistan appears to be uniformly bad. The military
action, one of the four prongs of the US/Coalition Campaign against terrorism
does not appear to have achieved its objectives, which, in any case, remain
undisclosed. The Pentagon, having purchased all rights to Satellite imagery
of the area, the media has access to only such information about the results
of the bombing as the Pentagon chooses to release in its regular press briefings.
Certain things are nevertheless clear.
The bombing has not broken
the will of the Taliban leadership. It has not persuaded the "moderate"
Taliban to bolt to the welcoming arms of the Anti-Taliban opposition. This Anti-Taliban
opposition-apart from the Northern Alliance, anathema to most Pukhtuns-remains
undefined. Media reports suggest, that the five days of the bombing of the frontlines
of the Taliban force to the north of Kabul have focused on the Non-Afghans-or
in other words Osama's infamous 55th Brigade of extremist Arabs for whom there
is no sanctuary other than a Taliban Afghanistan. In the meanwhile other reports
suggest that the Taliban have now learnt their lesson and have moved their men
and weaponry into civilian areas. The 55th Brigade may well have done so also.
If the Americans now chase them into these areas one can be sure that, no matter
how sophisticated the weaponry and how targetted it is, media everywhere but
particularly in the Islamic world will be berating the Americans and the Coalition
for having departed from their pledge to minimize civilian casualties.
Taliban morale seems to
be high. Not a line furrows the brow of the Taliban ambassador in Islamabad
as, at his virtually daily press conferences, he denies reports of cracks in
the Taliban ranks and accuses the Americans of causing civilian casualties.
In contrast to his dour interpreter he has no difficulty cracking a smile or
grinning widely after sharing a joke with a reporter.
Bombing has not persuaded
the Northern Alliance to venture beyond its watch posts on the outskirts of
Bagram Airport, risk casualties and engage the Taliban forces. It has not raised
the morale and fighting spirit of the Northern Alliance sufficiently to enable
them to fight for and retake Chaghcharan cutting off the Taliban in Mazar Sharif
from their supply bases in the South. It has not persuaded General Dostum's
forces to fight harder to hold on to the town of Marmul they captured in the
vicinity of Mazar Sharif. Whether this was attributable to the prowess and morale
of the Taliban or to the old Afghan habit of telling their sponsors that nothing
could be done until they were better equipped is not known. But, clearly, whatever
the reason the news would be most unwelcome in Washington. In this context if
the Americans and Pakistanis learnt only one lesson from their last involvement
in Afghanistan it should have been that if the Afghan fighter believes you desperately
need his assistance he will take you for every last round of ammunition that
you have, stash it away, deliver only a minimal result and then come back for
more pleading battle losses. The Russians may have agreed to supply $40 million
worth of arms to the Northern Alliance and the Americans may have agreed to
pay for it but given the tenuous supply route and the prospects of infighting
within the Alliance on how the loot is to be distributed it will be many weeks
before they become a factor in the battle for Mazar.
Does this then raise the
nightmarish possibility of the Coalition being drawn into a ground assault by
their own forces? As the Russians have no doubt told the Americans Vietnam was
a picnic compared to the sort of resistance they would face in Afghanistan.
Anecdotally it is said that when Iran had massed troops on the Afghan border
and threatened to invade Afghanistan if they were not given satisfaction on
the question of the murder of their "diplomats in Mazar-e-Sharif the Afghans
sent them a message along the following lines. "Please invade and occupy
Kabul-we will not stand in your way. You can determine the timing of your entry
but be warned, we will determine the timing of your departure." The story
is probably woven from the whole cloth but it assumes plausibility because the
mythology of Afghanistan includes the 19th Century massacre of the British Army
contingent as it sought to withdraw from Afghanistan.
One can only advise that,
notwithstanding the new and understandable fury aroused by the Anthrax mailings,
our American success in Afghanistan may well require patience and "inaction"
on the military front allowing the other processes to play the primary role.
Such patience should have been exercised before the 7th October. Its value may
have been reduced by the actions of the past three weeks but it is not too late
even now. Let the Cold War Warriors recall the relish with which they saw the
Russians step into the Afghan Quagmire and be wise enough to let cooler heads
such as Powell call the shots limiting themselves to help President Bush and
Powell explain to the American people why on the visible front such "patient
inaction" was needed while the "invisible front" was strengthened.
Success in the military
process would perhaps have served to mute questions on how badly the other prongs
of the campaign (political, diplomatic and humanitarian) had been affected.
Now however that the military process appears to have been stalemated this does
need to be reviewed.
Food convoys continue to
be sporadic with drivers expressing apprehensions about driving into zones that
may be subject to bombing. If the daily minimum wheat requirement for an adult
is 500 grams, as it used to be for the refugees in Pakistan, and if there are
indeed seven million Afghans inside Afghanistan dependent on external food assistance
the daily shipment should be 3,500 tons. If a stock is to be built for those
that will be cut off in the winter the daily shipment requirement may climb
to 5-6, 000 tons and yet the UN agencies acknowledge that in ideal conditions
they cannot hope to ship more than 1, 600 tons. Starvation stares the Afghans
in the face. They may know that part of the problem arises from Taliban obstructionism
or their demanding of duties but they will hold only the bombing responsible
for the starvation and this will be exactly how right-minded people in the Islamic
world and even in the West will see it. No propaganda blitz can really change
this perception significantly. The USAID administrator has announced that arrangements
have been made to arrange large-scale airdrops in case supplies by the land
route prove insufficient. But this is bound to be far too expensive.
On the political front Commander
Abdul Haq, fiercely anti-Taliban spent much time pleading with the Americans
he was interacting with to secure a postponement of military action. He did
not succeed. Now he is dead executed by the Taliban. It would appear that one
of these very commanders, who he wished to co-opt into his camp, betrayed him
perhaps because the bombing had made the Taliban less repulsive than they had
been on 6th October or because the Taliban deployed bribery more effectively.
His execution by the Taliban is more than the "blow" the State Department
said it was. He was a respected figure. His credentials as a field commander
in the struggle against the Soviets were impeccable. Finding a replacement of
his stature will be difficult.
The Sayed Ahmad Gilani arranged
meeting in Peshawar proved to be a farce. Bets are now on the meeting being
called under Turkish auspices. Largely Northern Alliance sponsored and dominated
it may attract some Pukhtuns lured by the prospect of a joy-ride but surely
the organizers realize
that Turkey's credentials,
given its linkages with Dostum, are just as tainted vis-a-vis the Pukhtuns as
Pakistan's are alleged to have been with regard to the Gilani meeting. No other
movement is visible. One can only hope that it is taking place.
On the diplomatic front
unease is increasing in the Islamic world and in the Western world. People are
getting angrier and the governments jumpier as casualties mount and no end seems
to be in sight. In Pakistan the line is being held but there is anger on the
streets compounded by the influx of refugees and the expectation that there
will be many more.
Unless there are more invisible
developments that one is unaware of there is, it seems, only one solution. Halt
the bombing. Create the atmosphere in which the funds CIA has been allotted
can be usefully employed to suborn the loyalties of the tribals and perhaps
of the leaders of an urban center like Jalalabad where the ex-king can descend
and where there can be a manifestation of the support he enjoys. Increase the
availability of food in Afghanistan. Allay the disquiet in the public mind and
explain to the aroused Americans that WTC/Pentagon incidents cannot be avenged
nor can the new horror of Anthrax be brought to an end by military means.
[republished with permission
by the author from www.jang.com.pk]
Date/Time Last Modified: 6/3/2004 7:24:58 AM
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